The Covey Rise
Anyone who has hunted quail knows the moment. The dog is on point, guns are poised, breath is steady and heartbeats quicken. The dog leans in, then there’s a sudden thunder of wings as a covey bursts from the grass. The hunter only has a second to react, yet success in that instant isn’t a reflex – it’s preparation. Hunters who study the cover, trust their dogs and anticipate the flight path are ready when the rise comes.
Business leaders face the same test with cash. The “covey rise” comes when payroll hits, a vendor invoice arrives, or a tax bill comes due. Without forecasting, panic follows. With it, leaders act with clarity and confidence.
| The hunter who prepares before the covey rises is the one who makes the clean shot. Cash forecasting works the same way. |
Reading the Landscape
Hunters study the terrain, feed plots, wind direction and tree lines to know where birds hold. Cash forecasts offer the same visibility, helping leaders see when inflows and outflows will converge, and where risks or opportunities may be hiding in the grass.
Leading the Bird
Every hunter knows that when that covey bursts, a shot fired where the quail is will miss. You must learn to anticipate the flight path and lead the bird (aim where it’s going) to create the perfect opportunity to take your wing shot. Likewise, today’s balances are already history. Forecasting forces leaders to aim ahead – where cash will be weeks from now – so decisions are guided by foresight, not hindsight.
| In hunting and in business, it’s not about where things are now – it’s about where they’re heading. |
Trusting the Dogs
Seasoned hunters trust their bird dogs to bring order to the chaos of the hunt. In business, your “dog” is the forecasting process itself. A simple rolling 13-week forecast updated weekly provides steady guidance, pointing to cash pressures before they explode and send you and your party into a frenzy.
Clean, Confident Shots
The best hunts end with clean shots – no wasted shells. Likewise, good cash forecasting prevents costly mistakes like last-minute borrowing, missed opportunities or idle cash. Instead, it enables deliberate and strategic moves that strengthen relationships and fuel growth.
Quick Start Guide: Building Your Forecast
Like your first hunt, forecasting may feel daunting at first. Start simple, then refine as you go.
Choose a Horizon: Begin with a 13-week rolling forecast to capture short-term timing. Track beginning cash, receipts (customer payments, refunds, loan draws) and disbursements (payroll, vendors, taxes, debt service).
Use Real Data: Base receipts on AR aging and disbursements on AP schedules and known events.
Meet Weekly: Lock actuals, update the forward view, and roll the forecast out another week.
Add Scenarios: Establish the following scenarios to construct a strategic plan over time. Ideally, you want to “plan your hunt, so you can hunt your plan.”
- Baseline – Reflect your historical revenue trajectory or that of industry peers to understand what will happen if you maintain the status quo.
- Optimistic – Project attainable growth. (e.g., if your typical revenue grows 5% annually, project 8-10% growth.)
- Conservative – Project a reasonable decline. (e.g., if revenues have been steady for the past two years, project a 5% drop.)
- Disruption – Create a doomsday scenario that would put your organization under a financial strain. (e.g., an accounting system upgrade results in your inability to bill clients for 30 days, or your organization falls victim to a $50,000 fraud scam.)
- Opportunity – Are you ready to react when a fantastic opportunity presents itself? (e.g., the warehouse across the street comes up for sale, or a supplier approaches you about a bulk purchase at a significant discount.)
| Bottom line: In hunting and in business, success belongs to those who prepare before the covey rises. |